Putin's Plan for Ukraine

Putin’s relentless aggression against Ukraine is a stark reality of our time, and Trump’s enduring alliance with him only deepens the complexity of this volatile situation.

Vladimir Putin has been fixated on Ukraine since the Orange Revolution, which began on November 22, 2004, when protests erupted over a rigged presidential election in Kyiv. Few anticipated that this would lead to the most significant conflict in Europe since World War II. Putin aimed to undermine Ukraine, seeing it as a challenge to authoritarian rule. While the revolution brought Viktor Yushchenko to power, it failed to bring about the political change many Ukrainians had hoped for.

 Yushchenko's presidency was marked by infighting, and he lost the 2010 election to Viktor Yanukovych, who had played a role in the Orange Revolution. Despite its shortcomings, the revolution highlighted the growing divide between Ukraine and Russia, with Russia under Putin centralizing power and Ukraine exhibiting a more fragmented political landscape.

Vladimir Putin supported Viktor Yanukovych in the 2004 presidential election. After Yanukovych won, Putin called for a crackdown on protesters, highlighting the increasing rift between Ukraine and Russia. Since then, Ukraine has steadily distanced itself from Russia. Putin played a crucial personal role in the Orange Revolution. Russian television, which many people in Ukraine watched at the time, heavily supported the candidacy of Viktor Yanukovych before the Ukrainian presidential election. On the eve of the vote, Putin made the critical decision to intervene directly. He traveled to Kyiv in late October 2004, where he was greeted with a military parade.

Then he went on national TV to lecture the Ukrainian public about why they should support his preferred presidential pick. It soon became apparent that Putin had miscalculated. His open and unapologetic attempt to interfere in Ukraine's internal affairs was widely interpreted as a grave insult and an indication of his contempt for Ukrainian statehood. This angered the public and helped get millions of Ukrainians involved in politics.

Weeks later, after a flawed second round of voting, Ukrainians came to Kyiv in large numbers to protest the election results. Putin's actions were one of the leading causes of the Orange Revolution.

Putin's attempts to assert control over Ukraine over the past twenty years have consistently backfired, driving the two countries apart. In 2013, he pressured his ally Yanukovych to renounce European integration, leading to a second revolution and Yanukovych's downfall.

In February 2014, Putin initiated military action by seizing Crimea and later sending troops to Ukraine's Donbas region. When this intervention reinforced Ukraine's desire for independence, he began planning the full-scale invasion of February 2022.

Since the Orange Revolution, Putin's ambition to reclaim Ukraine has defined his rule. He has sacrificed countless Russian soldiers, Russia's economic stability, international standing, and relations with the developed world in pursuit of this goal.

This shift in Putin's worldview became apparent after the revolution when he launched RT, establishing Russia as a major player in anti-Western disinformation. In 2005, the Kremlin encouraged Russians to wear orange and black St George's ribbons to honor Soviet victories, a direct response to Ukrainian symbolism that has since fueled a cult of World War II veneration, emblematic of the Putin era.

Putin's obsession with Ukraine stems from his imperialist view of Russian identity and his experiences as a KGB officer during the Soviet collapse.

In 1989, Putin was in East Germany when the Berlin Wall fell, witnessing the collapse of Soviet control amid pro-democracy protests. He claims his superiors told him, "Moscow is silent," a lesson that haunts him today as he perceives any loss of influence as a threat to Russia. 

Putin is particularly sensitive to Ukraine's national awakening and its embrace of European democracy, viewing Ukraine as a crucial part of Russia's identity. His opposition to Ukrainian independence began after the 2004 Orange Revolution, and he has consistently called the USSR's fall the "greatest political catastrophe of the twentieth century." 

Currently, the ongoing Russian invasion stems from Putin's belief that losing Ukraine poses an existential threat to Russia. Any compromise with the Kremlin is futile; peace will only be achievable if it is made clear that Ukrainian independence is irreversible.

Imposing neutrality on Ukraine will not stop Putin or bring lasting peace to Europe.

In the wake of Donald Trump's election, speculation about a negotiated settlement in the Russian-Ukrainian war has resurfaced. Putin has reiterated his demand for Ukraine's neutrality, insisting that good relations between Russia and Ukraine are difficult to envision without it. This demand has been consistent since the full-scale invasion and was a key point during early peace talks.

Some in the international community view this demand as reasonable, arguing that NATO's expansion has provoked conflict. They believe a neutral Ukraine could appease Russia. However, reports suggest a potential freeze on Ukraine's NATO aspirations might be considered part of a peace deal. Such a move would be a grave mistake, as it would leave Ukraine vulnerable to further Russian aggression.

Ukrainians have learned that neutrality does not shield them from Russian aggression. Despite adopting a non-aligned status during Viktor Yanukovych's presidency, Russia attempted to exert control over Ukraine, ultimately using military force when faced with resistance. 

Since the 2014 invasion, Putin has cited Ukraine's potential NATO membership as a rationale for aggression despite Ukraine showing little progress toward joining the alliance. NATO has only spoken vaguely about Ukraine's future membership, knowing this to be an exaggerated threat used by Putin to justify his actions.

Notably, when Finland and Sweden sought NATO membership after Russia's invasion, Putin showed indifference despite the strategic implications for Russia. His troop withdrawals from the Finnish border suggest he does not view NATO as a genuine threat. Putin's real concern lies in NATO's ability to deter Russian bullying of its neighbors, revealing that his opposition to Ukraine's NATO aspirations is driven by the desire to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty rather than security concerns.

For years, Putin has made no secret of his belief that the emergence of an independent Ukraine is a historical mistake and a symbol of modern Russia's retreat from empire. He has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine is not a "real country" and is fond of declaring that Ukrainians are Russians ("one people"). In July 2021, Putin even published an entire essay arguing against the legitimacy of an independent Ukrainian state.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, it has become increasingly clear that Putin's ultimate goal is not Ukraine's neutrality but its destruction. The Kremlin's propaganda machine has portrayed Ukraine as intolerably "anti-Russian" and promoted the idea that Ukraine's continued existence is incompatible with Russia's security. Meanwhile, Putin has compared his invasion to the imperial conquests of 18th-century Russian ruler Peter the Great and has repeatedly claimed that he is "returning" historically Russian lands.

Putin's imperialist outbursts must be taken seriously. Throughout occupied Ukraine, his soldiers and administrators are already imposing a reign of terror that directly echoes the criminal logic of his imperial fantasies. Millions have been displaced, and thousands more have disappeared into a vast network of camps and prisons. Those who remain face a policy of relentless Russification and suppression of all things Ukrainian. Adults must accept Russian citizenship to access essential services, while children are forced to undergo indoctrination in schools that teach a new Kremlin curriculum.

The crimes currently taking place in Russian-occupied Ukraine are a clear indication of what awaits the rest of the country if Putin succeeds. Despite several military setbacks, he remains fully committed to his maximalist goals of ending Ukrainian independence and erasing Ukrainian identity.

Moreover, since 2022, Putin has demonstrated that he is willing to wait as long as it takes to overcome Ukrainian resistance and is willing to pay almost any price to achieve his imperial ambitions. Imposing neutrality on Ukraine under these circumstances would be tantamount to condemning the country to a slow but sure death.

Any peace process that does not provide Ukraine with credible long-term security guarantees is doomed to failure. Giving in to Putin's demands for a neutral Ukraine may offer some short-term relief from the threat of an expansionist Russia. Still, it would ultimately lead to more war and the likely collapse of the current global security order. There is simply no plausible argument for insisting on Ukrainian neutrality other than the desire to leave the country defenseless and at Russia's mercy.

Peace will only come when Putin is finally forced to accept Ukraine's right to exist as an independent country and as a member of the democratic world. This includes, of course, the right to choose security alliances. It is absurd to prioritize Russia's disingenuous security concerns over Ukraine's very real fears of national annihilation. Instead, when serious negotiations begin in the coming months, Ukraine's security must be the top priority. Until Ukraine is secure, Europe will remain insecure, and the threat of Russian imperialism will continue to loom over the continent.

Peace will only be achievable when Putin recognizes Ukraine's sovereign right to exist as an independent nation and embraces its rightful place in the democratic world, including its choice of security alliances.

It is utterly unreasonable to place Russia's fabricated security concerns above Ukraine's genuine and pressing fears for its survival.

In any forthcoming negotiations, Ukraine's security must take center stage. As long as Ukraine feels threatened, Europe will remain vulnerable, and the specter of Russian imperialism will persist.